Explaining My Vote

The Importance of Governing for the Future

So I filled out my ballot today and will put it in the drop box this afternoon. I voted for Kamala Harris and want to explain my thinking.

I’ve voted for Democrats since my first presidential election in 1976, so it may be surprising that I want to go to the trouble of unpacking my decision. Maybe doing so will have some impact on those who are still somehow undecided or on those who are thinking about sitting out the election.

In 2016, the election was broadly perceived as an Anti-Trump election. The prognosticators and pundits thought Hillary Clinton was the obvious choice, because it was “her turn”. Combined with Trump’s lack of experience with government and constant norm-violation, she was sure to win according to the New York Times needle. But the burdens of the ongoing server scandal, decades of anti-Clinton sentiment, a serious amount of misogyny, and some real compaign strategy mistakes, he eked out a win.

Many of the concerns about Trump’s leadership were borne out once he became president. From the claims about crowd size to immigration policy to embrace of dictators to a failure to address a global pandemic, he showed his weaknesses at governing. His showman style that works at rallies didn’t translate to decision making.

So 2020 was even more of an Anti-Trump election that the previous one was. Democrats coalesced around Joe Biden as the best strategy to keep Trump from retaining office. The “Stop the Steal” movement and the January 6th Capital attack demonstrated why that was so important.

I wonder what would have happened if Joe Biden had declared himself a caretaker president who would get us out of COVID and gladly serve a single term. Perhaps if Donald Trump hadn’t launched his campaign two years ago that might have been possible. There would have been on open primary in a contest for the Democratic nomination. But once Trump was in the race, Biden was motivated to stay. He felt an obligation to stop Trump once again. It was only when he figured out that his candidacy dramatically increased the odds of a Trump victory that he stepped down.

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I rehearse all of this recent history because I realized today that I wasn’t voting against Trump. I mean, there are a lot of reasons to do so.

He is clearly diminished relative to his 2016 persona and will be 82 at the end of his term. J.D. Vance is reasonably likely to be elevated to the presidency before 2028. Elon Musk, having destroyed Twitter, will create draconian cuts in the federal budget. RFK will be directing national health policy. Stephen Miller will oversee mass deportation. Aileen Cannon will be either Attorney General or a Supreme Court Justice. And all of these people have offered only vague policy proposals that have no working mechanisms. We’ll see how they actually work if they take office.

I didn’t vote Against Trump.

I voted For Harris.

Her campaign has used slogans like “Turn the Page” and “A New Way Forward” and “We’re Not Going Back”. Unlike all elections since 2000, the contest isn’t happening in the midst of crisis. The 2004 election was about the Iraq War. The 2008 and 2012 contests were about the Great Recession. The 2016 race had a crisis of leadership on both sides. The 2020 election was about COVID and near-economic collapse.

This year is different. We have generally survived the COVID disruptions to public health, education, employment, and supply chains. Innovations like the Infrastructure Act, the CHIPS act, and even the Inflation Reduction Act have spurred economic activity across the country. These have combined to get us record low unemployment rates, record stock market levels, increased wages, and an inflation rate near 2%.

Yes, prices shot up in 2022 and are not coming down. Even though wages are up, people still feel sticker shock when they buy gas or groceries. But to be honest, while we remember prices in 2018 as being lower, they were up quite a bit from 2012.

The combination of this relative economic health in macroeconomic terms sets the stage for Harris’s key proposals. Hopes for a middle-class tax cut, reinstatement of the child tax credit, tax credits for families with new babies, down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers, strategies to build new housing, support to people caring for aging parents, provide a serious opportunity to expand the felt economic status of most Americans. In addition, it is the most robust set of policy proposals to attack economic inequality we’ve seen in decades, maybe ever.

Some of you will no doubt ask, what about the deficit? The answer is two-fold. First, everything listed above should be seen as an investment that will increase federal revenues down the road. Second, Trump’s proposals are even more inflationary.

Others will rightly ask, what about Gaza? It’s an important question. While my first response is to ask what Trump’s plan for Gaza is, which would be the result from sitting out the election, there is a solid reason that Harris hasn’t done what her critics want. Namely, we have one president at time. It would be inappropriate for the sitting vice-president to counter current administration policy. But that situation will change next week. When she becomes president-elect, she is free to talk about her priorities in the new administration. I fully expect her to do so and will be surprised if she doesn’t move toward the proposals that Sen. Bernie Sanders is advancing on limiting offensive weaponry.

A note about something that’s not featured large in the campaign and surprisingly was absent from my voting decision. I’m not voting for Harris to have a woman in the White House. Yes, there is a huge (and potentially decisive) gender gap in her support. Yes, she has made reproductive rights a key part of her campaign.

But she is not running AS a woman. She is running FOR women. And men. And urban folks. And rural folks. And Republicans. And young people. And seniors.

She is a presidential candidate who is looking to make peoples’ lives better. She will undoubtedly have opposition on Capital Hill. Fox News and its mimics will not only avoid the story I just told but will distort every position she takes.

I’m supporting Harris because this is a once in a generation opportunity for government to be responsive to the felt needs of Americans. It’s a potential for us to address economic well being for everyone and not just the corporate elite. It’s a possibility to address our economic inequality by building on our national identity and ethos.

As I close out the final 17 days of my seventh decade, this seems like a great opportunity to do something I haven’t seen in 48 years of presidential elections. That’s why I voted for Harris.