Eight Days More
What's Going to Happen in the Midterms?
Astute readers of this newsletter will recognize this title as an allusion to the finale of the first act of Les Miserables. (The rest of you need to get with it!) Thirty-three years ago this time of year, I had the privilege of seeing Les Mis at the Auditorium Theatre in Chicago with the original Broadway cast.1 The song “One Day More” features all of the major characters stepping forward to predict what will happen tomorrow.
Valjean worries about the potential of his immanent capture. The young lovers Marius and Cosette mourn their coming separation right on the heals of discovering each other. The young students look forward to their fight against the government. Javert plans to infiltrate and arrest the revolutionaries. Eponine laments her unrequited love for Marius. The Thenardiers plan on how the coming battle will make them rich.
The song transitions into “Do YouHear the People Sing?”2 and the curtain falls. At the intermission, the audience (at least those who hadn’t read the book) doesn’t know whose version of tomorrow is most accurate.3
That’s how things feel a week and a day before the midterms. There are so many competing and conflicting visions of why things will turn out a certain way.
Historically, the opposition party to the incumbent president picks up seats in congress as voters seek some type of balance, especially in the current case of (barely) unified government.4
But this is also an election where threats to democracy are salient. This may not be a case where the out party is rewarded given the current role of extremism and election denialism.
Still, the economy provides major challenges for the president’s party. Gas prices are high5 and inflation continues to run hot.
But wages are up (not enough) and hiring continues to set records.
Voters say they are concerned about the uptick in violent crime (in spite of the data) and so want to support Republicans. But they are also concerned about the Dobbs decision and subsequent steps states have taken in its wake (look at Kansas).
Polls favor Republicans on the generic ballot. Then a new poll favors Democrats. Both are within the margin of error.
But wait, can polls be trusted? There is a problem with systemic non-response bias. In the past, it’s been older Republican voters and working class Republican voters who have refused to participate in polls. This year, according to an analysis from fivethirtyeight,6 Trump supporters are responding to polls. It’s infrequent voters who are being missed.
The polls, however, pick up issues magnified by media framing and grainy campaign commercials. In a CBS News poll released yesterday, majorities of voters agree that a Democratic congress will support open borders with Mexico and will want to defund the police. Are these the issues motivating voters or are they parroting back what they have been told throughout the cycle?
The CBS story shows an anticipated gain of 15 House seats for the Republicans (with a margin of error of plus or minus 12 seats). That’s a likely Republican advantage but is actually somewhat consistent with the split in the generic ballot question.
There are some data points that favor the Democrats. Early voting numbers are surprisingly lopsided against the Republicans, which is to be expected since the Trump faction now believes that the only REAL vote is cast in person on election day. The youth vote is up significantly compared to previous midterm elections, although the Generation X population appears to be lagging.
Then there are what researchers call “history effects”. These are things that happen in the world outside campaigning that might change everything. I recently finished Margaret Sullivan’s Newsroom Confidential, where she describes the way that press coverage of Hilary Clinton’s email “scandal” and the late Comey letter six years ago disrupted an already close race. Does the horrendous attack on Speaker Pelosi’s husband and the tone-deaf response by conservatives change the dynamics of the midterms? What about Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter and the increased wave of racist, sexist, and antisemitic content that’s occurred over the weekend? What else might happen in the next eight days?
In a little over a week, the curtain will rise on the second act and we’ll see what the result is. But I’d underscore what I’ve written elsewhere in this newsletter — the end of campaigning is where the work of governing starts. November 8th shouldn’t be our primary focus. That should be January 3rd, when the new Congress is sworn in.
E.J. Dionne, who is always worth reading, addressed these concerns in his piece today in the Washington Post. After discussing how the crime issue gets demagogued in political campaigns, he closes with a shift to governance. His last line is “A more measured conversation about crime will have to wait until after Nov. 8.”
For all the talking points about dissatisfaction with direction of the country, that will be the time for the government to address the concerns. How will Speaker McCarthy approach the important issues voters say they care about? How will Senators Vance, Walker, and Oz work to reduce inflation?
I’m not holding my breath for the answers.
It was the night before closing night. I was so moved by the story, the staging, and the music that I was tempted to go back the next night.
This was the one thing the movie did better than the play could. It showed scores of people across Paris singing “the songs of angry men”. But when the crunch time came, they were nowhere to be found.
Spoilers: Valjean escapes and saves Marius who eventually weds Cosette. Javert wins a hollow victory and then commits suicide. The students revolutionaries are crushed by the army pretty handily. Eponine dies. The Thenardiers continue their exploitive ways.
Thanks Manchin!
It’s hard to know what’s prompting concerns over gas prices (other than never-ending media stories with photos shot back in March in front of $7 a gallon prices from a lone California station). Last Friday gas prices were exactly where they were on 10/28/21. The shortage caused by pandemic related production levels is directly replaced by disruptions from OPEC and Russia. But this fact won’t dent the dominant narrative.
Thanks to PRRI’s Natalie Jackson for pointing me to this piece.