Harris's First Nine Days (warning, partisan content)

It's a very different message

Aug 14, 2024

Remarkably, it’s only been 24 days since President Biden announced that he was ending his campaign and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris. She formally became the Democratic nominee on Monday the 5th. She introduced her VP pick, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, on Tuesday at a massive rally in Philadelphia. They followed that rally over the next several days in Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada.

I watched the Tuesday rally in full (well, from Shapiro on). Out of the gate, you could sense that something had shifted. The tone was joyous and fun and future oriented.

This shift in tone must have always been in the various campaign plans. For whatever reason, President Biden couldn’t pull it off. His message was about tremendous accomplishments in the first term (which is true), fears of ‘MAGA Republicans” and Donald Trump as threats to democracy, and hopes to “finish the job”.

Yes, she talks about Project 2025 and other policy priorities Trump has espoused but those are the subtext. The text is about Freedom and Future. More than the “prosecutor vs felon” line, the “we won’t go back” chant seems to be the most important. Her campaign song is Beyonce’s “Freedom”. She and Walz recast freedom as a civic celebration for all Americans.

Trump, on the other hand, is giving the same speech he has given since the 2016 convention: the country is falling apart, leadership is incompetent (except for the pre-Covid years), and electing Harris will destroy the country. Not content to simply draw a contrast between his plans and hers, he exaggerates even legitimate critiques.1 Such caricatures are evident in this horrific ad the Trump War Room put on X yesterday.

As someone said last night, this makes the Willie Horton ad look tame. I don’t know who the target demographic is for all this negativity. At best, it seems to be aimed at male podcasters and influencers.2 Not only is it hard to imagine independent voters or disaffected Republicans line up behind Trump, but it gives the Harris campaign a very wide lane in which to operate.

It reminds me of a story from early in my teaching career. Sometime in the mid-1980s, a group of students organized a debate on social issues. There were four panelists: Mark, the economist, Steve, the historian, George, the Bible scholar, and me, the sociologist. I think it’s safe to say that George and I were center-left (which for that school was coded as liberal). Mark and Steve were advocates of radical reconstructionism. Out of the gate, they argued that supporting the government was idolatry and that the income tax violated the 8th Commandment (Thou Shall Not Steal). I realized right away that any moderate position, even liberal positions (I defended affirmative action) would be seen as rational in comparison. I honestly don’t remember anything but that opening salvo.

This is the opening that Trump has given to Harris in her first week. David Lurie wrote this today in Public Notice:

Against this dire background, the eruption of optimism that immediately met Harris when she surprised the nation by becoming the Democratic Party’s standard-bearer might seem all the more improbable. Where, one might ask, did the opponents of Trumpism, who seemed utterly enervated just days ago, go to get their dose of energy, or shall we call it, joy?
The explanation is not that Harris and her campaign are simply “joyous about the joy;” rather, the Harris campaign reflects a long delayed celebration of the nation’s survival, and indeed its prosperity, in the face of the unprecedented assaults it faced during the Trump era.
But it’s a celebration tempered by a recognition of the challenges ahead. Harris’s most galvanizing issues, after all, are bound up with her supporters’ recognition that the nation’s most treasured attributes are far more vulnerable, and their survival far less certain, than most of us thought just eight years ago.

Yesterday, Paul Waldman showed how the recently completed Olympic Games also demonstrated the contrast between joy and darkness.

When you see that Olympic team, which unlike the groups representing most other countries comes in all hues and from all backgrounds, what is your response? I’ll tell you what comes to my mind: That is what America ought to be, right there. Look at what we show the world: all these different kinds of people who came from everywhere, and they all wear “USA” on their shirts. That’s what makes me proud to be an American.

What is the impact of the new Harris Freedom and Future message? Not only have all those rallies had over 10,000 people, but she has brought back demograpics that were soft on Biden: Blacks, Hispanics, Young People. The so-called “double haters” are disappearing. Even RFK, Jr. is “bearly” in the race.3

Even before her nomination was official, groups have been organizing on her behalf. One byproduct of the pandemic is that we all know how to use Zoom. So there have been Black Women for Harris, Black Men for Harris, White Guys for Harris, Comedians for Harris, Christians for Harris, Republicans for Harris4, and tonight I’ll take part in Evangelicals for Harris5.

All of this has had a tremendous impact on the most recent polling numbers. She is now even or ahead in nearly all of the swing states. A recent poll showed her outperforming Trump on the economy. And we are just five days from the start of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.6

There are still 84 days to the election. Things can certainly change. She still has to lay out some specific policy initiatives, handle some press interviews, have one or more debates, and find a satisfactory answer to those protesting the devastation of Gaza.

But if this first week is any indication and Trump keeps running his extremist message, she has a lot of room to work with.

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