It's General Election Eve!
Like it or not, it’s Biden-Trump redux
The Supreme Court’s unanimous decision in Trump v. Anderson means that Donald Trump cannot be removed from the ballot due to section three of the fourteenth amendment. Justices Barrett, Sotomayor, Kagan, Jackson argued that it was sufficient to use the “patchwork quilt” argument in overturning the Colorado decision that would result if individual states dictated federal eligibility. The others went further, arguing that Congress needed to create implementation processes for section three (because they have great faith in Congress making important decisions?).1
Super Tuesday is tomorrow. In spite of Nikki Haley’s win in the Washington, D.C. primary over the weekend, the day will end with Donald Trump and Joe Biden holding insurmountable leads in their respective delegate counts. Even if Nikki stays in the race to be a pain in Trump’s side, the general election contest will be underway on Wednesday.
Haley likes to talk about how 70% of Americans don’t want a Biden-Trump rematch and would prefer somebody else. I went searching for the data behind the claim and found it in the Harris Poll2. Actually, to get the 70% you have to go back to September 2023. It’s been falling ever since. The last data from mid-February pits the figure at just over 60%.
Part of this is because the alternatives (DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Scott, Pence, Phillips, Williamson) have fallen by the wayside. The fact is, there are no pathways for anyone not named Biden or Trump to win the 2024 nomination.3
So even though most registered voters would prefer not to have the rematch, the reality is that we’re here. Now the question will be which one of these two candidates should take office on January 25th, 2025.
Many have observed that we have a race between two incumbents. Because large percentages of Trump supporters believe (wrongly)4 that the election was stolen from him, they see him as a continuation of the best days of his first term.
To date, horserace coverage has focused on Biden’s age and its accompanying infirmity on the one hand, and Trump’s trials and outrageous or incoherent campaign speeches. Yet, as I’ve regularly written here, campaigning isn’t governing.
We have seen enough from the two candidates over the course of their first terms to have a sense of where their governing priorities lay. These are the most important factors to keep front of mind as the general election campaign gets underway.
What do they plan to do? How will they go about that? Will they rely on partnering with congress or going it alone in the imperial presidency? Are they serious about solving problems or more interested in divisive talking points? How do they plan to fix problems like inflation? Are those plans feasible? What will be the unintended consequences of those policies?
Many of these questions will not get sufficient attention. The press will continue to harp on the latest outrage of age or gaffes or court decisions or polling crosstabs. Special interest groups will spend millions and millions distorting the record of the two candidates.5
Beginning this week, it is incumbent on everyday voters to pay attention to the key questions. A presidential election isn’t a popularity contest. It isn’t making sure your team wins. It’s not about hating the other guys. It’s about the country.
There are many significant obstacles to that idealistic vision. I’m currently reading two books that address the challenges: White Rural Rage by Tom Shaller and Paul Waldman and Attack from Within by Barbara McQuade. Those will be my focus on Wednesday and Friday.
The court did not address the issue of whether insurrection took place.
It’s always important to point out that Harris’ chair Mark Penn is married to No Labels chair Nancy Jacobsen. This chart has been key to the NL claim that they could win a third party effort (they can’t).
Only health events, legal troubles, or contested conventions can change this.
Don’t fall back on “election uncertainty” or “constitutional irregularities”. The data is clear that there was not “election determinative fraud”.
If there was ever an election where that is unnecessary (which is a lot), this one doesn’t need the grainy black and white voiceover ads.